Strength of Schedule

The following article is by guest contributor Sam Marshall.

Another element often forgotten by the novice to intermediate fantasy player pertains to strength of schedule. As you start your preparation, complete a few mock drafts, you begin to feel confident in your approach. The 1^st and 2^nd rounds are more or less a given, in regards to talent, yet the order, RB heavy or WR heavy, will always be unknown. Beyond the first two rounds, your draft could end up being a free for all. The basic trend from 2016 will still be relevant, with ~70% of the picks through the first 10 rounds being used for the RB and WR positions. Where you can really differentiate yourself from the pack is towards these later rounds. 

See the Strength of Schedule image below. It starts out with the hardest schedule (#1) on top and the easiest (#32) on bottom. The BYE weeks are highlighted and YELLOW. If a team’s opponent is listed in RED, it’s an away game. Now a clearer picture starts to emerge, as to where one could find some late round value. I’ve also highlighted some games in RED or GREEN during weeks 15-17 representing the playoffs. Depending on your league, playoffs could be scenario 1 during weeks 15-16 or scenario 2 during weeks 16-17 with a bye in week 15. If your league’s playoffs are in weeks 15-16, the following teams have home field advantage during that time: KC, WAS, NO, CAR, and SF. The following teams are on the road during the playoffs: DEN, LAC, MIA, ATL, and LAR. If your league’s playoffs are in weeks 16-17 with a bye in week 15, the following teams have home field advantage during that time: PHI, NE, BAL, and TEN.  The following teams are on the road during the playoffs: OAK, BUF, CLE and JAC. The remaining teams are split between home field and away games during this time frame.

Let’s look at one example below, from a 12 team mock draft (1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, FLEX, 1 DEF, 1 K), playoff scenario 2, in the 8^th round, you have the following options at WR. Reviewing the information, one begins to ponder: Do I go with the experts and take DeSean Jackson who will line up opposite Mike Evans all year? Do I take the highest ranked option out of Washington and go with Jamison Crowder? Do I look at Eric Decker in Tennessee, which is arguably a roster filled with talent and might not result in many looks? Do I reach a bit and take Pierre Garcon, the true #1 receiver in SF?

Player	Rank	ADP	Experts
DeSean Jackson (TB)	33rd	83	34%
Jamison Crowder (WAS)	31st	74	29%
Eric Decker (TEN)	36th	95	20%
Pierre Garcon (SF)	37th	94	15%

Given that you might only have 30 seconds to 1 minute to make your draft pick, this is something you need to have thought about in advance. Let me supply a little more information.

Player	Rank	ADP	Experts	Schedule	Playoffs
DeSean Jackson (TB)	33rd	83	34%	14th	Split
Jamison Crowder (WAS)	31st	74	29%	7th	Split
Eric Decker (TEN)	36th	95	20%	31st	Home
Pierre Garcon (SF)	37th	94	15%	20th	Split

With this information in hand, does a more obvious choice begin to appear? Don’t get me wrong, I think all of these receivers are a great find in the 8^th round. However, if I can find a potential #1 receiver on a talented team with one of the easiest schedules and home field advantage in the playoffs, I’m going to choose them every time. In my opinion, the best option in this position is Eric Decker.

Now granted, this scenario is just one of many you could face in your draft, but looking beyond the Rank, ADP, and Expert opinion, thinking about the long game, you could end up with a diamond in the rough during these later rounds. Good luck and may the odds be ever in you favor.