Let's get one thing straight.
Fun fact, David Johnson averaged an eye-popping (and likely matchup-winning) 24.75 points/week and his total points also outscored ALL QBs in PPR leagues. The QBs would fall in the 500-700 total touches range, but max out at 380 points with Aaron Rodgers himself.
So based off this, owning a successful RB appears to help out with winning your league. That's low hanging fruit though. The bigger issue is apparent in 2015 where the most commonly owned players on league winning rosters were 2 undrafted free agents and 3 players chosen in the 10th - 13th rounds. All 3 RBs were injury or late-season replacements for starting RBs. These were players likely on waivers or hopefully handcuffed to starters.
In 2014, we see CJ Anderson and OBJ who started off slow and had strong finishes to end the year. Now, in 2016 all 5 of the most-common players were successful (and healthy) RBs. Howard is the only one to be drafted outside rounds 1 and 2, and he worked his way into a starting role as the season went on.
What these few data points ultimately tell us is that yes RBs are valuable, but that sometimes the few players that are consistently present on fantasy winning rosters are players that you are not going to draft. It is extremely important to be involved during the year, checking when starting RBs get injured and planning ahead with your own roster.
Drafting well (and getting lucky with few injuries) will likely get you to the playoffs but as we saw in 2015, a single key pickup like Hightower later in the season can help win you the trophy. Keep your ear to the ground and stay on top of the waiver wire!
Also, as an anecdote, our league winner DID in fact have David Johnson on his team (and Matt Ryan, Jordy Nelson, and Mike Evans). Hell of a draft there Mr. Churchparty Podcast!
Next post - our league drafting history and what it means for 2017!
Sources:
R -- ggplot2 - graphs
R -- XML package -- scraping data into csv/excel tables
Historical fantasy draft position - thehuddle.com
Historical fantasy football stats - espn.com
David Johnson crushed last years fantasy season. Almost a third of ALL winning ESPN Fantasy teams had him on their roster. Fairly easy to see why when you look at him compared to the top 20 RBs and WRs.
Fun fact, David Johnson averaged an eye-popping (and likely matchup-winning) 24.75 points/week and his total points also outscored ALL QBs in PPR leagues. The QBs would fall in the 500-700 total touches range, but max out at 380 points with Aaron Rodgers himself.
So in the light of the absolute dominance of David Johnson as both a RB and overall as a fantasy player, where do RBs stand in the current state of the NFL?
Are RBs a priority? Will we see a majority of 1st/2nd round draft picks going towards RBs? Is the zero-RB draft strategy dead in the water?
These are the questions that my friend Sam and I struggle with in the current fantasy off-season. So in an effort to make a data-driven decision about where RBs lie in the current fantasy spectrum, I will be focusing on a few key statistics over the next few posts.
First off we see an interesting trend when we look at players on league winning rosters across the past 3 years where there are at least 3 RBs in the most common 5 players.
These are the questions that my friend Sam and I struggle with in the current fantasy off-season. So in an effort to make a data-driven decision about where RBs lie in the current fantasy spectrum, I will be focusing on a few key statistics over the next few posts.
First off we see an interesting trend when we look at players on league winning rosters across the past 3 years where there are at least 3 RBs in the most common 5 players.
So based off this, owning a successful RB appears to help out with winning your league. That's low hanging fruit though. The bigger issue is apparent in 2015 where the most commonly owned players on league winning rosters were 2 undrafted free agents and 3 players chosen in the 10th - 13th rounds. All 3 RBs were injury or late-season replacements for starting RBs. These were players likely on waivers or hopefully handcuffed to starters.
In 2014, we see CJ Anderson and OBJ who started off slow and had strong finishes to end the year. Now, in 2016 all 5 of the most-common players were successful (and healthy) RBs. Howard is the only one to be drafted outside rounds 1 and 2, and he worked his way into a starting role as the season went on.
What these few data points ultimately tell us is that yes RBs are valuable, but that sometimes the few players that are consistently present on fantasy winning rosters are players that you are not going to draft. It is extremely important to be involved during the year, checking when starting RBs get injured and planning ahead with your own roster.
Drafting well (and getting lucky with few injuries) will likely get you to the playoffs but as we saw in 2015, a single key pickup like Hightower later in the season can help win you the trophy. Keep your ear to the ground and stay on top of the waiver wire!
Also, as an anecdote, our league winner DID in fact have David Johnson on his team (and Matt Ryan, Jordy Nelson, and Mike Evans). Hell of a draft there Mr. Churchparty Podcast!
Next post - our league drafting history and what it means for 2017!
R -- ggplot2 - graphs
R -- XML package -- scraping data into csv/excel tables
Historical fantasy draft position - thehuddle.com
Historical fantasy football stats - espn.com
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