Le'Veon Bell is a generational talent at the running back position, and is a dominant work horse in a time when rush attempts continue to go down. Even compared to young dominant running backs like David Johnson and Ezekial Elliott he stands above the rest of the field in total yards/game, and in touches per game.
Even with the amazing season David Johnson had in 2016, Bell averaged ~5 more touches and ~20 more yards per game. This speaks to both the skillset of Bell as a runner and receiver, and to the necessity of him absorbing so many touches due to the lack of a true WR2 last season for the Steelers. The Steelers obviously like Bell's skillset and understand how to use him effectively, so they looked to sign him to a long-term deal this past offseason. However, Bell seems to have decided that since he was used as a WR2 and a RB1 that he should get paid for his utilization as both. This argument is more clear if we look at the breakdown of receiving vs rushing yards per game for the top 20 WRs and RBs.
Bell is apparently holding out for a longer and richer contract as he is set to play for ~$12 million dollars under the current one-year franchise tag. Bell was second only to Ezekial Elliott in rushing yards/game and had ~4-10 yards/game less than receivers such as Davante Adams, Michael Crabtree, Terrelle Pryor, Dez Bryant, Deandre Hopkins, and Allen Robinson. That is pretty good company in terms of WR notables. His argument holds up in that regard, he did perform well as both a receiver and running back.
However, when we look at RB payment trends, we can see just how unlikely he is to get more than the $12 million per year that he turned down from the Steelers (he is theoretically asking for $17 million/year).
Over the past 17 seasons as the salary cap has increased so have the WR and QB average salaries for the top 20 players. However, when we look at RBs, we can see that their salaries have plateaued and are starting to trend down, although Adrian Peterson did receive ~ $15 million per year from 2011- 2016 (but is only making $3.5 million this year). The average salary for a true RB1 is about 5-10 million/year, which is low when you think of production but appears to be what the market is willing to pay. Players on their rookie contracts like D. Johnson, E. Elliott, Todd Gurley, Melvin Gordon, and Carlos Hyde are producing at a high rate, while earning between $6.5 - 0.7 million per year. In comparison the top 10 veteran running backs not named Le'Veon Bell are making between $8.25 - 4.5 million/year. Again, Bell apparently turned down an average salary around $12 million per year, when the next five highest paid running backs are all making less than $8.5 million per year.
It is very unlikely that Bell gets paid what he thinks he deserves, and it is looking increasingly likely that he will be playing for another team next year. His style of running works extremely well within the Steelers system, and others have done a great job of examining how he is so successful as a runner. His running style relies on patience and counter-attacking, basically baiting the defense into making the wrong move and then punishing them.
This style works extremely well with the dominant Steeler offensive line, but if he does end up playing for another team with a worse offensive line or a different offensive scheme he may not be able to use his patient style to such great effect. Additionally, his availability is also one of the issues the Steelers likely have with offering him even more money. In the playoffs, Bell's absence due to injury contributed to the Steelers losing to the Ravens in the 2014 AFC wild card game, to the Broncos in the 2015 AFC divisional game, and to the Patriots in the 2016 AFC title game. Both the Broncos and the Patriots went on to win the Superbowl in those respective seasons.
All this being considered, I do hope the Steelers are able to sign Bell to a multi-year deal as he is a game-changer for them. Would the Steelers have beaten those playoff teams and made it to the Superbowl in 2015/2016 with Bell? We'll never know, but the Steelers are definitely a better team when Bell is playing. This is especially true in the playoffs where the Steelers are 1-3 when Bell is out and 2-0 when Bell played a full game.
We can only hope that the Steelers and Bell are able to agree on a deal that makes sense for both the team and the player.
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